When it comes to Stock Markets, there are three things almost every investor believes in. One, stock markets around the world are overvalued; two, a correction is inevitable and three, no one knows when this proverbial bubble will burst. However, historically maybe it had not been possible to presume, if experts are to be believed, this time around – the date is set, and it may be November 19, 2025.
No, this is not a astrological prediction and no planets are aligning that foretell economic upheaval. It’s simply – the day Nvidia Corporation declares its annual earnings.
Surprised or confused? Read on.
Nvidia, the $5 Trillion company
On October 29, 2025 Nvidia created history. The company’s market capitalization crossed the $5 trillion mark, making it richer than most countries in the world. And the event sent investment houses in a tizzy. Heads huddled and numbers started to crunch as the fate of many now lay vested in the hands of one.
Let us begin by putting to rest that Nvidia’s phenomenal growth is not a bubble nor a hogwash. The company, that started with focus on gaming graphics, now is singlehandedly responsible for the AI (artificial intelligence) boom. The chipmaker is now the foundational player in the global AI economy.
Nvidia’s AI chips, (Blackwell) are crucial to the basic architecture that is powering generative AI. The company already has orders amounting to US$ 500 Billion for these. Apart from that, the company also announced that it has signed deals with US Government to build seven super computers.
If that is not enough, the analysts peg the company’s share in machine learning hardware is close to monopoly (close to 95%). The changing geo-political situation, the unsettled trade war between US and China (China being the other major player in chip manufacturing) and also the strategic partnership and expansion announced by the company all converge towards it’s success.
The result of all these factors has charted the company’s runaway success in the year. It is no surprise that the company’s market valuation quickly crossed that of Microsoft and Apple ($4 Trillion) mark in a matter of 41 trading days. What was more significant, however, was that the rise did not stop and it crossed the threshold of $5 trillion in the next 79 days.
In 2025 alone, the stock price of the company has grownt by almost 50%. What’s more, the overall momentum and enthusiasm for AI is further adding tailwinds and aiding the company’s flight.
If its all strong, why are experts worried about stock market crash?
The recent growth and the overall position of the company have placed it as the frontrunner of the AI infrastructure. It is, without a doubt, the largest player that is determining the growth and ascent of AI in the world. If the countries and companies continue with the same level of enthusiasm for AI, the company is bound to keep growing.
However, what makes analysts edgy is how much of that expectation has already been accounted for. In simpler terms, all the eggs are lying in the single basket.
The expansion of the company into software services and global manufacturing also raises risk as it is a new territory. Furthermore, the competitive pressure and the uncertain geopolitical situation all posit a possibility of increased risks.
With the company’s valuation comparative to large economies, a less than ‘expectant’ report can certainly cause havoc. Simple statistics and calculations suggest that a simple correction of even 1 to 2 per cent in the stock prices of the company can create ripples across the indices.
Furthermore, a shift in sentiment can erode margins that cause the indices to show sharp fluctuations. A less than robust positivity towards AI and growth – which may be difficult considering the current prices, a small divergence in reality may compress the multiple.
How does it impact Indian & global stock markets?
Long story short, Nvidia’s earning report may cause minor or major corrections in S&P 500. Needless to say, changes in the US Stock market will have ripple effect through all major economies of the world – and India cannot avoid it. Shifting sentiments, a shift in the promise of the growth from AI, all can cause rifts across the stock exchanges.
Having said that, it is important to point out that nothing is certain and markets may rally as well.
What to do?
Experts advise all to carefully watch the markets and signs of disruptions. The earnings report and revenue guidance can signal possible acceleration or fatigue in the AI demand.
Apart from this, investors also need to monitor the supply chains for the hardware as well as policy regulations – especially in regards US/ China export rules and trade agreements.
As for what not to do is panic. Laws of economics suggest that a bear run may happen. However, shorting of stocks in anticipation may accelerate the correction, causing free fall and decline.
As of now, all eyes are on Nvidia and how its story unfolds. Whether the ‘tech bubble’ will burst or would it continue the growth rally? What is for sure is that companies with stronger fundamentals would tide through the corrections. Stay vigilant and keep your eyes peeled.