Third Wave Predictions & Precautions: When would it peak, how deadly would it be, how to stay safe

As number of cases show a positive decline and lockdowns are getting lifted, there are multiple reports regarding the third wave predictions of COVID19 hitting India. With USA, Brazil and many countries including neighboring Sri Lanka now within the spate of third wave with record deaths reported daily. Amidst all the clamour and concerns, various scientists and medical experts have shared different timelines for third wave. Even though they vary in their predictions, they all have one consensus – third wave would come to India as well.

COVID19 Third Wave Predictions – as shared by various experts

SUTRA Model by IIT Kanpur

In a recent comment, different scientists have suggested that the third wave might peak in September or mid-October with as many as 6 lakh cases per day. A few other modelling experts have also suggested daily cases crossing about 3 lakh during the peak of third wave – depending on the degree of relaxations given.

Adding to the predictions, the SUTRA model developed by IIT Kanpur, which came closes to predicting the second wave peak, has now suggested that the possible third wave of COVID19 might peak in November, if a new variant (more virulent than Delta) emerges. As for the number of cases, the scientist, Manindra Agrawal of IIT Kanpur has suggested that the peak is more likely expected to be on the line of first wave and not the second wave.

Based on the fresh data available, the three member team of experts at IIT Kanpur have suggested that the third wave may not happen as well, if a more virulent strain does not emerge in the country. This report is expected to be made public in a few days time.

MHA Recommendations

Meanwhile, the panel of MHA has asked the Central Government to ramp up vaccination, expecting a deadlier third wave of COVID19 in the country. Raising concerns over the impact on children, the panel has asked the government to ramp up pediatric facilities in the country.


“There may not be a third wave if a more infectious variant (than the existing ones in the country) does not emerge. There will be ripples,” Agrawal told PTI.

The SUTRA model had earlier predicted that the third wave would start by August and peak by October. As fresh data continues to pour in, better models would be developed to predict the course this pandemic would take.

Meanwhile, there are a few important steps that people need to undertake. The key is to break the chain and let the virus die a natural death. Arresting the spread of infection, when it is in its waning stage is extremely important.

Third wave Precautions: How to prevent yourself from COVID19

  • Wear mask when outside home – even it is for a small duration of time and even if you are fully vaccinated
  • When indoors, wear the mask if you are not aware of the vaccination status of others – if it is with family or friends whom you know are fully vaccinated, you can remove the mask
  • If you have fever or any COVID related symptoms – even if you are vaccinated, avoid going out and meeting people
  • Follow  proper hand hygiene and sanitize your hands when out in public places at regular intervals
  • Wash your hands regularly when possible
  • Immuno-compromised people should avoid stepping out of their homes as far as possible
  • Eat a healthy diet and include light exercise in your routine to build body’s strength and immunity
  • Children need to be informed and advised to follow these guidelines carefully – if the schools have reopened, educate your child to follow the COVID appropriate behavior diligently
  • Do not send children to school if they have fever, cold or cough
  • Most importantly, if eligible, get yourself vaccinated at the earliest


One thing which everyone needs to remember is that COVID19 can happen to anyone. No one is safe till everyone is safe. Hence, while we take care of ourselves, we also take care of people around us and contribute towards ending this pandemic.

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